<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_5KfRQJqpPU" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe> The Three Horizons Framework was developed by Bill Sharpe. It resembles the Berkana Institute's Two Loops model. Similar features: - Identifies an old system and a new system. - Labels the trailblazers / pioneers / walkouts. - Recognizes that hospice must be given to the dying of the old. Differences: - Three Horizons recognizes that innovation can be captured by the old system. Perhaps this is contained in Berkana's idea of stewardship. It also makes me think of [[Peter Atkins - The Second Law, why worse can be better]] --- ![[Pasted image 20200926144449.png]] The model depicts: - H1, an old system dying - H3, a new system growing - H2, an arena of disruption, which can be anything from a new technology, a vote like "Brexit", a concept like "the anthropocene", a social movement like "Occupy". Disruptions open up new ways of doing or being, as actors step into the dynamic space of change between H1 and H3. The 3 key questions that should be asked by looking at this model are: - What is being born and how can we help it to arrive well? - What is being disruptive and how can it be harnessed (H2+) and not captured (H2-)? - What is dying and how can we help it to let go and leave well? --- An example of how a platform technology like Uber can bring about H2-, extending the life of the old system: ![[Pasted image 20200926144026.png]] An example of how the same technology in the form of a platform co-operative can bring about H2+, bringing forward the growth of the new system: ![[Pasted image 20200926143934.png]] --- A fun exercise is to throw up the model on a big wall, and get participants to put post-its on different parts, in response to questions. ![[Pasted image 20200926141903.png]] Questions that can be generated by this model: A - What are the features of the old system? B - What (cultures, values, laws, events) has led us to this point? C - Why do we believe it is not fit for purpose (give examples), and how fast do we want it to decline, since collapse isn't pleasant? D - Is there anything valuable in the old system that we want to retain? E - What would we prefer things to look and feel like? F - Are there seeds of that picture around us? Give specific examples. G - Whose work are these present possibilities built upon? H - How can they be scaled and spread? Give examples of actors working on this. I - What other competing visions of the future are there? Can they be aligned with ours, or are they inherently competing? If so, how can we prevent their vision from derailing ours? J - What is actually being disruptive? Give as many different types: political, social, cultural, ecological, economic, technological. K - What are the roots of those disruptions? L - If you are a disruptive actor, what kind of guidance can you set for yourself to influence whether or not your work is captured by H1 to extend its life, or harnessed by H3 to bring it about? What allies will you seek, what action will you take, how will you assess the offers of finance and collaboration.